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Thu Oct 14, 2004
Pillar of Salt
Wretchard of Belmont Club has written a brilliant, almost poetic essay explaining why John Kerry's view of this war as a "blend" of police, intelligence, and legal action is nothing but nostalgia for a past that we can never return to. A past, in fact, that only existed in our minds. Here's an excerpt, but you should read it all:
Theoretically, Kerry could still find a way to wrap his ideas into some bold and cohesive construct for the next half-century -- a Kerry Doctrine, perhaps, or a campaign against chaos, rather than a war on terror -- that people will understand and relate to. But he has always been a man who prides himself on appreciating the subtleties of public policy, and everything in his experience has conditioned him to avoid unsubtle constructs and grand designs. His aversion to Big Think has resulted in one of the campaign's oddities: it is Bush, the man vilified by liberals as intellectually vapid, who has emerged as the de facto visionary in the campaign, trying to impose some long-term thematic order on a dangerous and disorderly world, while Kerry carves the globe into a series of discrete problems with specific solutions.
Bai's article reminds me of one of those products which are described on the packaging as being a new space age, high-technology, portable illumination aid which on closer inspection turns out to be a flashlight. When the newfangled description of terrorism as a "blended threat" is subtracted, the entire program consists of the policies of the late 1990s. Bilateral talks with North Korea. Oslo. G-8. The United Nations. Warrants of arrest. Extradition requests. Not a single new element in the entire package, except the fancy rationale. There is nothing wrong with that, any more than there is anything objectionable about a flashlight, but a more candid characterization of Kerry's proposals is not a voyage into uncharted waters so much as return to the world of September 10; in Kerry's words "back to the place we were". It has the virtue of producing known results, and suffers only from the defect that those results do not include being able to prevent massive attacks on the American mainland.
Kerry's world, in a way, is where one goes if George Bush's vision proves false: the frying pan, as a place of refuge if one lands in the fire. As a negative vision it will always hold some attractions; which will grow in proportion to failures in the Global War on Terror and fade in proportion to its successes. Roger Simon succinctly described Bai's article as a plea to return to "business as usual", a call to the past from "the ultimate conservative". It is heartbreakingly pathetic in its own way.
I cannot help but think that September 11 was far more tragic to Liberalism than to anyone else. Over time it will be represented as a kind of Fall, the moment Eden was stolen, in a way that an earlier generation saw the Kennedy assassination as the end of a dream and the way some undefined instant in the 1970s marked "the day the music died". The United Nations, the photo opportunities with Yasser Arafat on the White House lawn, the outward solidarity with Europe must seem so tantalizingly close, an election away; just a month distant, but it may be already past, even with a Kerry presidency. In reality even Kerry will be forced to live in a changed world. He may mount the United Nations podium again, but it will not be the same podium; and revive the same policies only to discover they have acquired strange, new and unpredictable effects.
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Is John Kerry a flip-flopper?
It's easy to take a sentence out of context from a statement someone made a year or two ago, and make that person sound inconsistent with what they say now. People have short memories, and the rewriting of history is always a danger when there are groups with a serious interest in presenting history in a certain way.
You'll notice on this blog I've never called John Kerry a flip-flopper. That's because I don't know if he is, as much as I strongly disagree with him on his positions. These days, he comes off as incoherent at best, but additionally someone who just doesn't get it and would make our country less safe.
It's still an important question, however, whether he has changed positions many times, or whether he has basically said the same things all along. I intend to determine which it is. Instead of relying on video clips from partisan political ads, I will re-watch in their entirety all the Democratic primary debates from C-SPAN, starting with the first one from May 4, 2003.
I'll let you know what my findings are.
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Why trade deficits are good
A lot of people point to our foreign trade deficit as an indication that there's something wrong with the way our economy works. Many have retorted with an explanation that such a statement depends on a faulty assumption of what trade deficits actually are.
But few people go the extra mile and actually argue that our trade deficit is an indication that our economic system is superior to other parts of the world. I was about to write a post on that very topic, to explain. But then I discovered it's already been written by the CATO Institute.
The basic point is that a trade deficit signifies an influx of foreign capital and investment into the U.S. That investment comes about because foreigners have confidence in the ability of the U.S. economy to give a strong return on that investment. Thus, a consistently large and growing trade deficit is one of the best indications that our economy is on the right track.
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Final debate thoughts
Well, I set up two TVs side by side, so I could watch the debate on one, and the Yankees/Red Sox game on the other. So I had MSNBC's Hardball on the first, baseball on the second. Heh.
First thing I noticed is they wore the exact same outfit, including their tie:

Second thing I noticed is it's probably not smart to say this to a CBS News anchor, of all people:
Last thing I noticed (boldface mine):
The gap between rich and poor is growing wider. More people are dropping into poverty. Yet the minimum wage has been stuck at, what, $5.15 an hour now for about seven years. Is it time to raise it?
KERRY: Well, I'm glad you raised that question.
And that concludes my brilliant debate analysis series. I hope this helps you make an informed decision in two and a half weeks.
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